Linked Data – the past 10y and the next 10y

Though Linked Data (the set of principles) can be considered being around since roughly three years, the technologies it builds upon are around already considerable longer: two of the three core Linked Data technologies (URIs and HTTP) are some 20y old. And because I know that you’re at least as curious as I am 😉 I thought it might be nice to sit down and capture a more complete picture:

So, why a thermo-view? Well, actually using technologies is a bit like ice-skating, isn’t it? As long as a technology is still evolving, it is sort of fluid (like water). Then there are crystallisation point(s), the technology matures and can be used (a thin layer of ice). After a while, the technology is established and robust – able to carry heavy load (a thick layer of ice).

Lesson learned: it takes time and the right environmental conditions for a technology to mature. Can you take this into account, please, the next time you’re tempted to ask: “when will the Semantic Web arrive?” 😀

So much for the past 10 years.

What’s upcoming, you might wonder? Well we hear what the “Web 3.0 leaders” say and here is what I think will happen:

• In 2010 we will continue to witness how Linked Data is successfully applied in the Governmental domain (in the UK, in the US, for transparency etc.) and in the Enterprise area (eCommerce: GoodRelations, IBM, etc.).
• In 2011, Linked Data tools and libraries will be ubiquitous. A developer will use Linked Open Data (LOD) in her application just as she would do with her local RDBMS (actually, there are libraries already emerging that allow you to do this).
• In 2012 there will be thousands of LOD datasets available. Issues around provenance and dataset dynamics have been resolved.
• In 2013, Linked Data-based solutions have displaced heavy-weight and costly SOA solutions in the Enterprises.
• From 2014 on, Linked Data is taught in elementary schools. Game Over.

Ok, admittedly, the last bullet point is likely to be taken with a grain of salt 😉

However, I’d love to hear what you think. What are your predictions – factual or fiction, both welcome – for Linked Data? Where do you see the biggest potential for Linked Data and its applications in the near and not-so-near-future?